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Author Topic: The Recession Ended?  (Read 669 times)

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Offline dodge16vrt

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The Recession Ended?
« on: July 6, 2012, 11:00:18 AM »
According to this article, The recession ended 3 years ago. Hmm, Where was I? 3 years ago my business was still booming, 4 years ago it was making a half mil a year. Since January I have made less than a McDonalds worker! Where the heck do they get these facts, Or lack thereof!
Do they think by writing a story about the recession being over 3 years ago this will actually make it happen? We have more jobless than ever. Every day I see another business fold here. How about some truth?
http://www.wistv.com/story/18963494/us-employers-add-80000-jobs-as-economy-struggles

Offline workgoats

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #1 on: July 6, 2012, 09:33:24 PM »
I agree completely.  I was an operator at a gas plant and now I'm praying an unemployment check will show and interviewing to drive a forklift at a lumber yard...
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Offline PowerWagonPete

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #2 on: July 7, 2012, 06:19:45 AM »
There will never be enough jobs in America ever again...

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/there-will-never-be-enough-jobs-in-america-again   :(

Unless...   ;D
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Offline Captain Obvious

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #3 on: July 7, 2012, 06:41:28 PM »
Really, it just depends on what a recession is?

Is it the amount of people not working? The amount on the unemployment dole? The amount of houses on the market? Sales figures for a specific sector? Price of specific items? Amount in average savings account? Interest rates? Volume of activity? Figures only from a certain group? Wages? Figures from all sorts of groups that cancel each other out? Is it specific to a certain geographic area? Can we cherry pick to prove a point?

Or is it up to our personal interpretation? Are we allowed to view the world in a boom or recession light because of our own personal recessions? Or totally disregard our own situations and based off select other people we personally know?

I mean we can't answer the question if the recession has ever ended or even started, unless the term can be clearly defined.  :D

A commuter claims there is a recession every time he pays higher prices at the pump, or his transportation job lays off due to rising energy costs.

An oil and gas worker claims there is a recession, every time the price of oil falls and he gets laid off.

Offline PowerWagonPete

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #4 on: July 7, 2012, 08:01:09 PM »
Really, it just depends on what a recession is?

Is it the amount of people not working? The amount on the unemployment dole? The amount of houses on the market? Sales figures for a specific sector? Price of specific items? Amount in average savings account? Interest rates? Volume of activity? Figures only from a certain group? Wages? Figures from all sorts of groups that cancel each other out? Is it specific to a certain geographic area? Can we cherry pick to prove a point?

Or is it up to our personal interpretation? Are we allowed to view the world in a boom or recession light because of our own personal recessions? Or totally disregard our own situations and based off select other people we personally know?

I mean we can't answer the question if the recession has ever ended or even started, unless the term can be clearly defined.  :D

A commuter claims there is a recession every time he pays higher prices at the pump, or his transportation job lays off due to rising energy costs.

An oil and gas worker claims there is a recession, every time the price of oil falls and he gets laid off.


It's been awhile since this particular map's been updated, CO, but for some reason, I don't believe it's changed all that much since February of 2011...

http://www.latoyaegwuekwe.com/geographyofarecession.html   ;D
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Offline Captain Obvious

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #5 on: July 7, 2012, 08:55:56 PM »
I believe your statement as well. Of course those figures are based on percent currently taking government hand outs. So then it begs the question, did society become more willing to take those hand outs? Did all of those jobs vaporize? Or is it a combination of the 2? What is the precise point between recession and not recession?

Job loss or lack of creation can't be the sole factor in determining such. The economy could be "booming", and I can still lay off a bunch of employees to finance some more efficient machine or process. My business could be perfectly healthy and I just find intermodal shipping, internet sales, robotics, Lean/JIT/5S, or other automation could eliminate many workers.

Whether they choose to get on the govt handout train aka unemployment, or not, might be up to them, even if other opportunities are available. So that model isn't completely accurate. Conversely, it doesn't include under employed, those who are still looking but ran out of 99wk benefits, or those who just gave up and went under ground. Since the numbers aren't available, it leaves a lot up to personal interpretation of their immediate surroundings. So we end up with widely conflicting reports of if the recession exists or not, because no one has a clear definition of what it even is.

It has also been an overused excuse for both employers and "job seekers". Every slacker out there now uses it as a casual excuse to justify staying at home or excuses his performance-based termination on the "recession", and every employer uses it as an excuse for wage cuts, freezes, lack of maintenance, or what ever else is convenient at the time.

Offline ramchargertodd

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2012, 08:42:59 AM »
DEPRESSION is still in full swing here in fly-over country.   :(

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What you THINK is foundational to who you are.

Offline dodge16vrt

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2012, 09:02:12 PM »
Dont know, Maybe because my industry is dead nationwide! I went from half mil profit a year to making less tan my kid. According to a friend of mine on the inside at State Farm, they have less people with full coverage, So less claims. Thats on the insurance side. Also, When gas is high people drive less. People also drive less when they are not working. When they dont drive they dont break their glass. Whent they dont break their glass I dont work. Go out and drive so you can break your glass and I can work!
ALOT of stores are empty here. Employers are claiming they receive over 1k apps per job available. Everyone I know is worried about their job and how they are gonna survive. I dont care what statistics say, I look at reality. You can show me a graph saying we are saved and we are all happy and I will call you a freaking liar.
Our jobs are all outsourced and we get left with the crumbs.

Offline KThaxton

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2012, 09:14:03 AM »
I went from half mil profit a year

Profit? as in that's what you brought home or reinvested in the business after all expenses were paid?
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Offline dodge16vrt

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2012, 10:49:02 AM »
 It was alot of hard work and long hours. I wont do it again and in a way I am glad the recession slowed things down. I now have alot more time with the family. Money isnt everything.This business has alot of competition and can be tricky when you are mobile too. Here I have to spend ALOT of money in permits that most of the other shops ignore. I have to have a license or permit to operate in every shit town, municipality, village or city I operate in. That gets expensive. Also, Good techs make $16-25 per hour. I sed to only give State Farm a 15% discount, Now they demand a 60% discount. My state passed a law saying now I have to agree to that too.
I would also like someone to explain how if the recession ended a while ago, So many towns and cities are going broke too.

Offline KThaxton

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2012, 12:20:34 PM »
So, was there a "yes" buried in there? You brought home half a million?
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You're absolutely correct, Kendall. My mistake  ;D

Offline dodge16vrt

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2012, 01:11:54 PM »
Sorry but I dont post exact figures on a public forum. The information is out there but I dont volunteer exact figures. Nowadays almost anything you say gets you in trouble on line. I will leave it to you to connect the dots. This business used to be very profitable. I just read the latest version of auto glass magazine. It seems the industry is so eroded that in NY they are giving discounts up to 85.4% off.
Here is a pic from the latest AGRR magazine. This is a random survey of what the locals in certain regions are charging. This is done by price shopped calling. Going back say 4-5 years ago the average discount on that part was anywhere from 10-20% and is now 60-80%.

Offline KThaxton

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2012, 01:51:11 PM »
Sorry but I dont post exact figures on a public forum.

You volunteered the "half a mil profit" claim. I'm not asking you to get any more specific than that. I'm just asking for clarification on your use of the term "profit". I suspect you mean "operating income", not profit. If you don't know the difference, perhaps running your own business isn't for you.

If you misspoke, just admit it instead of posting random, unrelated figures that just makes you appear to be beating around the bush. 
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You're absolutely correct, Kendall. My mistake  ;D

Offline dodge16vrt

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2012, 02:51:35 PM »
It has nothing to do with "if its for me". I have run many successful businesses that I turned for great money. I sold 2 glass shops in SWFL for great profits as well as a computer biz and 2 landscape companies.
What is going on here is a bad economy, Like it or not. All the glass shops here are struggling. I decided I didnt want to be in the rat race anymore with my glass shop and made a WISE business choice not to work for peanuts. I had been wanting to move on to other things for a while. All I am saying is there is still a bad economy. The fact that I do less business right now, I dont care. I didnt misspeak either. I think what I earned is fantastic for the size of my company. My shop was rated number 1 shop in the midlands 3 years in a row by all of the major insurers. But now its time for me to retire into something I really enjoy. I dont care how much it makes really as long as I enjoy it.

Offline KThaxton

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2012, 03:27:26 PM »
I didnt misspeak either.

Ooooookay then.  ::)  Seemed like bs to me 'cuz typically folks bringing home half a million a year (works out to be roughly $240 an hour) don't own old Dodge trucks and hang out on truck forums.

Did you blow it on drugs?  ;D
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You're absolutely correct, Kendall. My mistake  ;D

Offline dodge16vrt

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2012, 09:57:07 PM »
Actually I am pretty conservative. I dont care for the money part really. But thats a pretty ignorant statement to say the least.
If you must know the truth of it. Go back a few years and I was driving a Jaguar XJ8 supercharged. I also had a bunch of muscle cars and some old classics, a Scarab off shore boat, a cabin in the mountains in TN, etc. One day I walked out my side door and looked at all the junk I had. I asked myself, What the hell am I doing? Then I went and just sold just about all of it. I promised myself I wouldnt be like the rest of my family which is very materialistic. My dad, He doesnt know how to be a dad really. He isnt a bad man but he seems to think throwing money at everything is the answer. He wasnt around when I was little but his money was. When I was old enough I decided I didnt want anything from him and started my own businesses. Through alot of hard work and support from my wife I was able to be quite successful. I also promised myself I would never stray from being an honest businessman. I did this knowing that I wouldnt make as much as the screwball businessman but I didnt care. I could go out and buy a new truck tomorrow but I dont want or need one. In fact if we sell this house instead of rent it, We want a smaller house. I just got to the point I felt I was a glutton.
You may or may not understand what or why I am like this but thats ok. By the way I did it all with cash. I do not have a loan on anything or any credit cards. My credit score sucks because I dont use credit.
But enough about me. This thread was about the economy and how it still sucks. By the way, Hank Williams Jr drove a 93 Bronco which he sold just a few years ago. Just because you have money doesnt mean you have to flaunt it. Heck, I wear $10 Wal-Mart jeans. Oh and I put them on the same as anyone else.

Offline dodge16vrt

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Re: The Recession Ended?
« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2012, 10:03:38 PM »
Oh and to add, I dont do drugs and I dont drink either. Never have. I know, Pretty boring.
In my industry before the changes, It was quite easy to make close to or more than $300 per hour profit. On average I can do 2 installs per hour and made approx $200 profit off each job (those were the days). I also had sub contractors doing jobs for me. I would pay them $60 per install and I would make a minimum $100-$140 off each of those jobs. That was in addition to what I was doing at the same time. There is still money to be made but not near half as much. Rural area shops had the potential to make a heck of alot more, Still can if they play their cards right. The insurance companies pay more to rural area shops. When we were required to give -20% off NAGS they were getting +20% on NAGS. NAGS is the industry standard pricing.